Good Reads, Quick Math, and Poker Armor

A few years ago I was a very deep cash game in a full $ 5 / $ 10 with difficult players stacked. I had. Approximately $ 2,300 in chips and woke up under the gun KdKh After winning a pretty tight time of about 6 hours, I made a standard raise to $ 30.

The action up to the cutoff frequency, covering was the only player at the table. The gentleman in the seat was a player, maybe in the mid-fifties. It is difficult, but not crazy. Player profile submitted following me under strict and aggressive. I had known for years, but never really get caught before this hand.

Thus, section a brief look at their hole cards and is $ 100 to go without hesitation.

The action folded to me and I made $ 250.

In retrospect, the more I thought about it, increase (and evaluated hundreds of times by hand), plus I’m not sure about this. I do not usually like cheesy shots like that, but my thought process for the size of the stimulus was trying to keep them in isolation when something like KQ, AJ, tens of thousands had pocket or something similar. I knew it would more than likely see the flop with these combinations. Moreover, since the profile and impact paris (remember, I UTG 4 Paris!), Do not expect me replay starting hands with a pair of jacks oo AKO, I was expecting a call. I also noticed my game stacked so deep and essentially runs in my hands. And this makes sense, what happened next so fascinating.

Cutting pressure bet to $ 900

Ugh. Deposit time.

I never felt a pair of kings hide in my hand as fast as before.

I thought long and hard about what your bet BB May 80 … and had to be very close.

Wondered AKs, but quickly in this way. This is not a tournament game is a deep stack cash! Only a fool or an ass (not the player) Play Big Slick in a safe game.

A couple of shots tank was only about 15 seconds long. But I was pretty sure that he was not able to do that to play with one of these initial hands, so they were out.

There were only three farms viable for me:

A. Pocket Queens

A second pair of kings or

Third Pocket Aces.

That’s it.

I took a few deep breaths and rechecked action. For these situations, so I recommend using what I call “the armor of poker.” What this means to me, is very polarized dark shades, a shirt and a big hood with IPOD many types of music “brain” (classical or jazz classic, but mostly classical). help me, my own world of deep thought, without worrying about the release of the force, or give my opponents the pleasure of seeing torture.

Option 1: The ladies (QQ).

This was by far the least likely, in my opinion instead. As I mentioned earlier, my image was fixed, and I made a bet from UTG 4 presumptuous. I scream I’m a monster, something better than, say, a pair of jacks or ten. So while QQ is a possibility, which was not very likely, in my opinion. I do not think the old man was quite aggressive five bet with QQ here. So I asked what percentage of time that appears to QQ here? My best guess math was 20%.

Option 2: Cowboys (KK).

This participation was in this scenario, if you do not stay with the other two kings. While it is easy to dismiss some KK, if only because it is unlikely that another player has two copies of the hole cards is exactly the same. But the effect of contact dictate that this deficiency is still possible.

Again I wondered, what percentage of the time, playing with KK to appear here? My best guess math was 15%.

This leaves option 3, for the moment, is the logic in my opinion: The Rockets (AA).

5 bet that spoke to me: “I know you’re a monster, and want to lay up” I could not think logically quite simply called his reraise If I say most likely pair. As I type flop? It might also have pocket pairs preflop great knowing when paris 80, you probably have to press a set! call, the fact that I had a pair of kings was not relevant, was re-raise or fold all.

So if 20% QQ and 15% of the time, is KK, I thought that nearly 65% ??of the time, his letters are an AA at this time!

But before I could ride my cowboy in the sunset, I did a quick calculation in my head:

If 20% of the time, QQ, I’m one of the favorites to win 80% of the hand. What this means is that, mathematically: 8 out of 10 times I’ve lost $ 2,300 and 2 out of 10 times I will win 2300. 18400-4600/10 = $ 1,380 (multiplied by 20% of the time, I thought it probably was holding) = $ 276 + positive expected value (+ EV) in this scenario.

If 15% of the time, has KK, are dead, and mathematically, which means we are almost 100% probability are inseparable. 100% of the time, I win and lose $ 0 $ 0 for my EV is $ 0 (multiplied by the probability of 15%, which of course always $ 0) in this scenario.

If 65% of the time, was AA, I’m an outsider to 20%. 80% of the time, I lose $ 2300 and 20% of the time I will win $ 2,300. 18 400 4600/10 = – $ 1,380 (multiplied by the probability of 65%) = – $ 897 expected negative.

What does all this mean in math? Well, if my interpretation is correct, my expectation for what he did all-in – $ 621. This is just another way of saying that if my reading of his lines starting hands and the likelihood that these titles were correct, I can not wait, an average loss of $ 621 in the long run, if j “I ignored my reading and shoved

Play in eleven years, this is the only time you trust dirty kings preflop. My opponent asked a little disappointed if I messed up when he showed his face QQ AA. I will protect my armor poker around me as I smiled and kept a total silence.

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